COO/Partner/Responsible Broker John Merritt
Ranch real estate market trends have shifted in 2024, offering valuable insights into pricing, inventory, and buyer behavior that will shape the industry through 2025.
“From my perspective, in 2024, our industry moved past the 2021-2023 Covid pandemic market,” said John Merritt, COO/Partner/Responsible Broker of Live Water Properties based in Jackson Hole. “Overall, the market was more balanced and followed historic trends more closely than it had since the pandemic.”
“Historically, during a presidential election year, the rural real estate market is a bit off because people take a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude,” said Merritt. “For us, 2024 defied history, and we didn’t experience the typical election-year market lull until October. It was a busy year for our Brokers and Agents.”
Some of the notable deals in 2024 included the 50-acre Lost Creek Ranch in Wyoming (last asking price of $39.5 million), the 2,145-acre Twin Buttes Farm in Idaho (last asking price of $15 million), and the 2,300-acre Lightwood Plantation in Georgia (last asking price of $15 million) in Georgia.
These successes came as the team represented both Buyers and Sellers. In theory and in fact, Live Water Properties is a listing-based business by design. As a listing brokerage, the team controls the marketing and the leads, creating the greatest opportunity to bring a deal to fruition for the Seller.
This past year, ranch real estate market trends show 61 percent of the transactions by volume were on the Seller side of the equation. According to Merritt, this fell within the firm’s historic norms and signaled a shift from 2023 when, for the first time, the majority (52 percent) of the firm’s transactions were on the Buyer side of the deals.
In October, when activity slowed a bit, Merritt noted that interest in rural land did not wane, but that dealmakers began to encounter a lack of conviction in the marketplace as the election neared. Negotiations began to stretch out or, in some cases, stalled. And while the change in behavior can be attributed in part to the historic “wait-and-see” attitude that accompanies presidential elections, Merritt suggested that increasing inventory could be a factor as well.
When the Live Water team gathered for its broker workshop in mid-May, the company was experiencing incredible momentum. Since then, their inventory has tripled, driven by the trust of clients and our commitment to results. At the same time, they successfully represented 28 sellers this year, demonstrating their ability to not just grow but also deliver exceptional outcomes. The firm is entering 2025, with several exceptional, once-in-a-lifetime properties, including the 16,532-acre Antlers Ranch in Meeteetse, Wyoming (listed at $85 million) and the 190-acre Red Hills Ranch in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (listed at $65 million).
“Inventory across the nation has grown,” Merritt said. “We’re seeing more Sellers, including Baby Boomers making meaningful legacy decisions, enter the market and provide Buyers with a greater range of opportunities.”
The ranch real estate market trends started earlier in the year but has picked up steam. Merritt anticipates that it will continue into 2025, creating a more balanced market. Currently, inventory is increasing, Buyer and Seller behaviors are changing.
“In my experience, after a really hot market, the gap between Buyer and Seller is very wide,” Merritt said. “Then, we go through a transition period where their expectations move closer to one another. Finally, a balanced market is established when expectations on both sides are closely aligned.”
Merritt predicts winter, a traditionally slow season, will come and go, and by spring people will return to a business-as-usual mindset post-election. For him, the big question for 2025 is: What will Buyer activity do?
“Ultimately, ranch and recreational real estate is a supply and demand business,” Merritt said. “Supply is increasing. If the number of Buyers stays high, the market will continue at a strong pace, but if the number of Buyers decreases or Buyers decide to invest in other assets, the market will reflect those choices as well.”
Although it’s too early to call it a Buyer’s market, a more balanced market means that accurate pricing is essential for Sellers. Gone are the days of posting a picture online and getting three above-asking-price offers by sundown.
“Premium properties will always bring premium prices, but other types of properties need to be priced according to market realities,” Merritt said. “Sellers need to understand that the overheated market of COVID is gone, which means that price sensitivity is once again a major factor in the marketplace. Sellers need to level-set their expectations if they don’t want to suffer through a series of price reductions and have a property that lingers on the market.”
Whether buying or selling, Merritt said it’s a good idea to work with a Broker who is knowledgeable in the location of interest. On the Buyers’ side, many transactions are still occurring off-market, and the only way to find them is to have a trusted insider. On the Sellers’ side, it’s important to recognize that the market is much more balanced and potentially moving toward a Buyer’s market. So, choose a Broker who understands the true value of what you have and can activate a Buyer’s pool with a supportable price.
“Overall, I think it’s going to be a very dynamic market where things could evolve quickly,” Merritt said. “Whether you’re a Buyer or Seller, I’d advise you to know exactly what you want to do—and do it with conviction.”
A Snapshot of the Southeast
Southeastern Market Director Bill Calton
One of the firm’s most significant accomplishments that contributed to shifting ranch real estate market trends for 2024, is the successful expansion into the Southeast. The effort began in March 2023, when Bill Calton, based in Chattanooga, Tennessee, was hired as the Southeastern Market Director. His four decades of experience in the real estate and timber industries throughout the Southeast made him a natural choice to oversee and orchestrate Live Water Properties’ expansion.
According to Merritt, the expansion made sense for many reasons. Many of Live Water’s clients live in the Southeast and own recreational property in the Mountain West.
“By establishing our presence in the Southeast, we are attuned to the market in both places and stay close to our clients who are engaged in the natural world across the country,” Merritt explained.
In addition, the Southeast, because of its milder climate, is a year-round market, while naturally the Mountain West showings slow during winter months.
“Working in the Southeast allows us to leverage our marketing platforms and knowledge year-round, offsetting the ebb and flow of the Western market,” Merritt said.
And as importantly, Live Water’s executive team, co-founders Alex and Macye Maher, and Merritt all hail from the Southeast. Alex is from Alabama, Macye from Virginia, and Merritt from Georgia. They all still have family and deep roots in the region.
“We all came of age in the South and share a deep love of the land and natural resources there,” Merritt said. “That has to be acknowledged.”
The demographics also support the firm’s move. According to Calton, four of the five states enjoying the fastest population growth are in the Southeast—a trend that has remained steady since 2022. Americans’ reasons for moving are varied, but generally, people are leaving high-tax states and making their way to the more affordable South.
“When it comes to the overall lifestyle, the South is less crowded and more affordable,” Calton said. “The affordability extends to rural land.”
Currently, Live Water Properties is focusing on Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida. Tennessee and North Carolina are on the radar.
In the Southeast, clients are not only seeking out the desirable hub cities such as Atlanta, Memphis, Charleston, Savannah, and Birmingham but good, accessible land within a two-hour drive of their city of choice. Being within two hours makes a weekend getaway or even a day trip easy. The region’s varied landscape means the outdoor recreational options are equally diverse.
“Most of our clients are searching for their piece of rural heaven where they can bird hunt on a quail plantation, deer hunt in the timber, shoot ducks and geese at sunrise in the marshes or flooded timber or fish in lakes, ponds or rivers,” Calton said. “People want to get outdoors and enjoy it on their terms.”
He continued, “They want to get their nails dirty and improve a property, either by doing the work themselves or envisioning the result that guides someone else’s work. Ultimately, they want to build a place that delivers a sense of arrival.”
Since signing on, Calton has hired two Brokers, Jon Callaghan, based in Atlanta, and Davis Willis of Albany, Georgia. The duo joined the firm in late 2023 and already have $40 to $50 million of deals working right now.
Merritt said, “It’s a sign of a maturing business. We’ve established ourselves and grown quickly in the Southeast by having the systems to support our people and continuing to do our jobs the best we can every day.”
As Calton looks at 2025, his advice for Buyers looking for land in the Southeast is simple.
“Don’t spend too much time looking around after you find something you like in hopes that you’ll find a deal,” Calton said. “Demand throughout the region is strong, and if you find something you like, you should act on it, or you’ll likely lose it.”
For Sellers, his advice echoes Merritt’s, even in the high-demand Southeast.
“The market has normalized,” he said. “Be realistic about the listing price. Then, be patient. If you have a good piece of property at the right price, it will sell.”
In the Right Places
While the geography, the geology, the cultures, and the lifestyles of the Mountain West and the Southeast are vastly different, they have two things in common. People want to be there. And when they are in those places, they want to be outdoors.
“Whether it’s the Mountain West or the Southeast, we know the land, we know the lifestyle, and we know the market,” Merritt said. “We live it. We love it. And that makes us good match-makers for Buyers and Sellers.”
Regardless of where Live Water Properties’ team members are working, their goals are the same year after year.
“As always, our team keeps their eyes on the job and dedicates themselves to knocking it out of the park for every client, every time,” Merritt said. “Successful clients make for a successful business year after year.”
